Is resilience a unifying concept for the biological sciences?

There is increasing interest in applying resilience concepts at different scales of biological organization to address major interdisciplinary challenges from cancer to climate change. It is unclear, however, whether resilience can be a unifying concept consistently applied across the breadth of the biological sciences, or whether there is limited capacity for integration. In this review, we draw on literature from molecular biology to community ecology to ascertain commonalities and shortcomings in how resilience is measured and interpreted. Resilience is studied at all levels of biological organization, although the term is often not used. There is a suite of resilience mechanisms conserved across biological scales, and there are tradeoffs that affect resilience. Resilience is conceptually useful to help diverse researchers think about how biological systems respond to perturbations, but we need a richer lexicon to describe the diversity of perturbations, and we lack widely applicable metrics of resilience.

Potential extinction cascades in a desert ecosystem: Linking food web interactions to community viability.

Desert communities are threatened with species loss due to climate change, and their resistance to such losses is unknown. We constructed a food web of the Mojave Desert terrestrial community (300 nodes, 4080 edges) to empirically examine the potential cascading effects of bird extinctions on this desert network, compared to losses of mammals and lizards. We focused on birds because they are already disappearing from the Mojave, and their relative thermal vulnerabilities are known. We quantified bottom-up secondary extinctions and evaluated the relative resistance of the community to losses of each vertebrate group. The impact of random bird species loss was relatively low compared to the consequences of mammal (causing the greatest number of cascading losses) or reptile loss, and birds were relatively less likely to be in trophic positions that could drive top-down effects in apparent competition and tri-tropic cascade motifs. An avian extinction cascade with year-long resident birds caused more secondary extinctions than the cascade involving all bird species for randomized ordered extinctions. Notably, we also found that relatively high interconnectivity among avian species has formed a subweb, enhancing network resistance to bird losses.

Investigating the effects of acute and chronic stress on DNA damage.

A hallmark of the vertebrate stress response is a rapid increase in glucocorticoids and catecholamines; however, this does not mean that these mediators are the best, or should be the only, metric measured when studying stress. Instead, it is becoming increasingly clear that assaying a suite of downstream metrics is necessary in stress physiology. One component of this suite could be assessing double-stranded DNA damage (dsDNA damage), which has recently been shown to increase in blood with both acute and chronic stress in house sparrows (Passer domesticus). To further understand the relationship between stress and dsDNA damage, we designed two experiments to address the following questions: (1) how does dsDNA damage with chronic stress vary across tissues? (2) does the increase in dsDNA damage during acute stress come from one arm of the stress response or both? We found that (1) dsDNA damage affects tissues differently during chronic stress and (2) the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis influences dsDNA damage with acute stress, but the sympathetic-adreno-medullary system does not. Surprisingly, our data are not explained by studies on changes in hormone receptor levels with chronic stress, so the underlying mechanism remains unclear.

Quantifying phenological landmarks of migration shows nonuniform use of the Caribbean by shorebirds.

Of the boreal- and Arctic-breeding North American shorebirds that migrate south through the Caribbean, most individuals continue farther south. However, for many species, some individuals remain beyond the southbound migration period (i.e., throughout the temperate winter and/or summer). This variation among individuals adds complexity to observation data, obscures migration patterns, and could prevent the examination of the use of different Caribbean regions by various shorebird species during migration and in the nonmigratory seasons. Here, we present a novel method that leverages a well-established statistical approach (generalized additive models) to systematically identify migration phenology even for complex passage migrant species with individuals that remain beyond migration. Our method identifies the active migration period using derivatives of a fitted GAM and then calculates phenology metrics based on quantiles of that migration period. We also developed indices to quantify oversummering and overwintering patterns with respect to migration. We analyzed eBird data for 16 North American shorebird species as they traveled South through the insular Caribbean, identifying separate migratory patterns for Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, and Trinidad and Tobago. Our results confirm past reports and provide additional detail on shorebird migration in the Caribbean, and identify several previously unpublished regional patterns. Despite Puerto Rico being farther north and closer to continental North America, most species reached Puerto Rico later than other regions, supporting a long-standing hypothesis that migration strategy (transcontinental vs. transoceanic) leads to geographic differences in migration timing. We also found distinct patterns of migration curves, with some regions and species consistently having either symmetrical or skewed curves; these differences in migration curve shape reflect different migration processes. Our novel method proved reliable and adaptable for most species and serves as a valuable tool for identifying phenological patterns in complex migration data, potentially unlocking previously intractable data.

Biased assessment of thermal properties of birds from estimated body density.

Parameter approximation is often necessary when calculating species thermal properties, and researchers historically have assumed animals are spherical when estimating volume and density. We hypothesized that a spherical model would result in significantly biased measures of density for birds, which are generally longer than they are tall or wide, and that these inaccuracies would significantly alter the outputs of thermal models. We calculated the densities of 154 bird species using sphere and ellipsoid volume equations and compared these estimates to one another and to published bird densities measured using more exact volume displacement methods. We also calculated evaporative water loss as a percentage of body mass per hour, a variable known to be critical for bird survival, twice for each species, once with the sphere-based density and once with the ellipsoid-based density. We found that volume and density estimates were statistically similar between published densities and those estimated using the ellipsoid volume equation, suggesting that this method is suitable for approximating bird volume and calculating density. In contrast, the spherical model overestimated body volume and therefore underestimated body densities. This resulted in the spherical approach consistently overestimating evaporative water loss as a percent of mass lost per hour than the ellipsoid approach. This outcome would result in mischaracterizing thermal conditions as lethal for a given species, including overestimating vulnerability to increased temperatures due to climate change.

Identification of priority shorebird conservation areas in the Caribbean.

Despite being geographically central to the Atlantic Americas Flyway for migratory birds, the Caribbean is often overlooked or underappreciated when addressing the conservation of North American shorebirds. To our knowledge, this is the first Caribbean-wide assessment of shorebird use in the region. We analyzed 211,013 shorebird species observations in the insular Caribbean from 2010-2019, representing 78,794 eBird checklists and cumulative total of 2.1 million shorebirds of 45 species. We conclude that priority areas for shorebird conservation include Humedal Sur de Pinar del Río (Humedal Sur de Los Palacios) in Cuba, and Monte Cristi in the Dominican Republic as they each likely support more than 20,000 shorebirds annually, and they host large abundances of geographic populations for particular taxa. Specifically, the former site hosts >10% of Short-billed Dowitchers (Limnodromus griseus griseus/hendersoni), and >1% of Black-bellied Plovers (Pluvialis squatarola cynosurae) and Wilson's Plovers (Charadrius wilsonia wilsonia), while the latter site supports large numbers of Black-necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus). We also identified at least 15 additional sites that likely cross the 1% population threshold for one or more shorebird taxa. These sites may qualify for special international designations such as Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas or as part of the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network; 11 of the 17 sites we identified do not hold either of these titles. Data on subspecific or geographic distributions of three species, Snowy Plover (C. nivosus), Black-necked Stilt, and Killdeer (C. vociferous), are insufficient to reveal if the sites with the highest abundances were mostly comprised of Caribbean populations or migrants, but the limited information suggests that they also likely exceed 1% thresholds on several islands. Based on our results, we recommend more extensive systematic surveys of shorebirds in the Caribbean, including research on turnover rates and movements between islands, as well as assimilation of shorebird survey data not yet included in the eBird portal.

Non-parallel changes in songbird migration timing are not explained by changes in stopover duration.

Shifts in the timing of animal migration are widespread and well-documented; however, the mechanism underlying these changes is largely unknown. In this study, we test the hypothesis that systematic changes in stopover duration-the time that individuals spend resting and refueling at a site-are driving shifts in songbird migration timing. Specifically, we predicted that increases in stopover duration at our study site could generate increases in passage duration-the number of days that a study site is occupied by a particular species-by changing the temporal breadth of observations and vise versa. We analyzed an uninterrupted 46-year bird banding dataset from Massachusetts, USA using quantile regression, which allowed us to detect changes in early-and late-arriving birds, as well as changes in passage duration. We found that median spring migration had advanced by 1.04 days per decade; that these advances had strengthened over the last 13 years; and that early-and late-arriving birds were advancing in parallel, leading to negligible changes in the duration of spring passage at our site (+0.07 days per decade). In contrast, changes in fall migration were less consistent. Across species, we found that median fall migration had delayed by 0.80 days per decade, and that changes were stronger in late-arriving birds, leading to an average increase in passage duration of 0.45 days per decade. Trends in stopover duration, however, were weak and negative and, as a result, could not explain any changes in passage duration. We discuss, and provide some evidence, that changes in population age-structure, cryptic geographic variation, or shifts in resource availability are consistent with increases in fall passage duration. Moreover, we demonstrate the importance of evaluating changes across the entire phenological distribution, rather than just the mean, and stress this as an important consideration for future studies.

Feather corticosterone does not correlate with environmental stressors or body condition in an endangered waterbird.

Physiological metrics are becoming popular tools for assessing individual condition and population health to inform wildlife management and conservation decisions. Corticosterone assays can provide information on how animals cope with individual and habitat-level stressors, and the recent development of feather assays is an exciting innovation that could yield important insights for conservation of wild birds. Due to the widespread enthusiasm for feather corticosterone as a potential bioindicator, studies are needed to assess the ability of this technique to detect meaningful differences in physiological stress across a variety of stressor types and intensities. We examined feather corticosterone from 144 individuals among the 13 known breeding populations of Hawaiian gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered waterbird, on the island of O'ahu. These ecologically independent subpopulations are known to have low genetic connectivity and movement rates and differ largely across a number of important conditions, including level of predator management, human disturbance, proximity to urban development and conspecific population density. This system is well suited for assessing the performance of feather corticosterone as a bioindicator of different known habitat-level threats common to this and many other conservation-reliant species. We found no statistically significant relationship between feather corticosterone and level of predator control, level of human disturbance, gallinule population density, percent urban cover or body condition across all sites despite the substantial difference in stressor magnitude in our dataset. We did find that gallinules in habitats with larger population densities were in worse body condition. These findings suggest that feather corticosterone is not a consistent indicator of anthropogenic impacts on populations. Furthermore, they suggest that feather corticosterone may be a poor bioindicator of known habitat-level threats for Hawaiian gallinules and that it should be used with caution in other avian taxa of conservation concern.

A half-century of changes in migratory landbird numbers along coastal Massachusetts.

We analyzed data from across five decades of passerine bird banding at Manomet in Plymouth, Massachusetts, USA. This included 172,609 captures during spring migration and 253,265 during fall migration, from 1969 to 2015. Migration counts are prone to large interannual variation and trends are often difficult to interpret, but have the advantage of sampling many breeding populations in a single locale. We employed a Bayesian state-space modeling approach to estimate patterns in abundance over time while accounting for observation error, and a hierarchical clustering method to identify species groups with similar trends over time. Although continent-wide there has been an overall decrease in landbird populations over the past 40 years, we found a variety of patterns in abundance over time. Consistent with other studies, we found an overall decline in numbers of birds in the aggregate, with most species showing significant net declines in migratory cohort size in spring, fall, or both (49/73 species evaluated). Other species, however, exhibited different patterns, including abundance increases (10 species). Even among increasing and declining species, the specific trends varied in shape over time, forming seven distinct clusters in fall and ten in spring. The remaining species followed largely independent and irregular pathways. Overall, life-history traits (dependence on open habitat, nesting on or near the ground, migratory strategy, human commensal, spruce budworm specialists) did a poor job of predicting species groupings of abundance patterns in both spring and fall, but median date of passage was a good predictor of abundance trends during spring (but not fall) migration. This suggests that some species with very similar patterns of abundance were unlikely to be responding to the same environmental forces. Changes in abundance at this banding station were generally consistent with BBS trend data for the same geographic region.

Phylogenomics clarifies biogeographic and evolutionary history, and conservation status of West Indian tremblers and thrashers (Aves: Mimidae).

The West Indian avifauna has provided fundamental insights into island biogeography, taxon cycles, and the evolution of avian behavior. Our interpretations, however, should rely on robust hypotheses of evolutionary relationships and consistent conclusions about taxonomic status in groups with many endemic island populations. Here we present a phylogenetic study of the West Indian thrashers, tremblers, and allies, an assemblage of at least 5 species found on 29 islands, including what is considered the Lesser Antilles' only avian radiation. We improve on previous phylogenetic studies of this group by using double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to broadly sample loci scattered across the nuclear genome. A variety of analyses, based on either nucleotide variation in 2223 loci recovered in all samples or at 13,282 loci confidently scored as present or absent in all samples, converged on a single well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis. Results indicate that the resident West Indian taxa form a monophyletic group, exclusive of the Neotropical-Nearctic migratory Gray Catbird Dumetella carolinensis, which breeds in North America; this outcome differs from earlier studies suggesting that Gray Catbird was nested within a clade of island resident species. Thus, our findings imply a single colonization of the West Indies without the need to invoke a subsequent 'reverse colonization' of the mainland by West Indian taxa. Additionally, our study is the first to sample both endemic subspecies of the endangered White-breasted Thrasher Ramphocinclus brachyurus. We find that these subspecies have a long history of evolutionary independence with no evidence of gene flow, and are as genetically divergent from each other as other genera in the group. These findings support recognition of R. brachyurus (restricted to Martinique) and the Saint Lucia Thrasher R. sanctaeluciae as two distinct, single-island endemic species, and indicate the need to re-evaluate conservation plans for these taxa. Our results demonstrate the utility of phylogenomic datasets for generating robust systematic hypotheses.

Profile repeatability: A new method for evaluating repeatability of individual hormone response profiles.

There is broad interest in determining repeatability of individual responses. Current methods calculate repeatability of individual points (initial and/or peak), time to peak value, or a single measure of the integrated total response (area under the curve), rather than the shape of the response profile. Repeatability estimates of response profiles using linear mixed models (LMM) generate an average repeatability for an aggregate of individuals, rather than an estimate of individual repeatability. Here we use a novel ad hoc method to calculate repeatability of individual response profiles and demonstrate the need for a more rigorous assessment protocol. Response profile repeatability has not been defined at the individual level. We do this using a new metric, Profile Repeatability (PR), which incorporates components of variance and the degree to which response profiles cross each other in a time series. Values range from 0 (no repeatability) to 1 (complete repeatability). We created synthetic data to represent a range of apparent time series repeatability, and 20 independent observers visually ranked those data sets by degree of repeatability. We also applied the method to real data on stress responses of European starlings Sturnus vulgaris. We then computed PR scores for the synthetic data and for real data from European starling corticosterone responses over time, and contrast the results to those from LMM. Finally, we assessed the sensitivity of PR to reductions in the number of time points in the corticosterone response, as well as reductions in the number of replicates per individual. We found the average PR scores for a group of individuals to be somewhat robust to reductions in points in the time series; however, the ranks of individuals (PR values relative to one another) could change substantially with reduction in the number of values in a time series. PR showed threshold sensitivity to losing replicate time series between 6 and 4 replicates. Surprisingly, human observers fell into two disparate groups when ranking repeatability of the synthetic data, and the PR score indicated that human observers may underestimate repeatability of data where replicates cross each other. In contrast to the average profile repeatability estimated using LMMs, our approach calculates individual repeatability. From our perspective, LMM does not provide a definitive idea of repeatability at the individual level; in essence, it concludes that suites of time series with low within-individual variance has high repeatability, regardless of replicate trajectories. LMM and PR have non-linear relationships between 0 and 1, but PR has greater discrimination for mid-values of repeatability. Consistent average group repeatability can be associated with substantial differences in individual ranks suggests that estimating individual repeatability is critical. The PR score should be useful in comparing repeatability of any type of nonlinear, including non-monotonic, response profiles over time, which are common in both physiology and behavior, and it demonstrates the specific needs for future improvements of a profile repeatability metric.

Landscape genetics identifies streams and drainage infrastructure as dispersal corridors for an endangered wetland bird.

Anthropogenic alterations to landscape structure and composition can have significant impacts on biodiversity, potentially leading to species extinctions. Population-level impacts of landscape change are mediated by animal behaviors, in particular dispersal behavior. Little is known about the dispersal habits of rails (Rallidae) due to their cryptic behavior and tendency to occupy densely vegetated habitats. The effects of landscape structure on the movement behavior of waterbirds in general are poorly studied due to their reputation for having high dispersal abilities. We used a landscape genetic approach to test hypotheses of landscape effects on dispersal behavior of the Hawaiian gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. We created a suite of alternative resistance surfaces representing biologically plausible a priori hypotheses of how gallinules might navigate the landscape matrix and ranked these surfaces by their ability to explain observed patterns in genetic distance among 12 populations on the island of O`ahu. We modeled effective distance among wetland locations on all surfaces using both cumulative least-cost-path and resistance-distance approaches and evaluated relative model performance using Mantel tests, a causal modeling approach, and the mixed-model maximum-likelihood population-effects framework. Across all genetic markers, simulation methods, and model comparison metrics, surfaces that treated linear water features like streams, ditches, and canals as corridors for gallinule movement outperformed all other models. This is the first landscape genetic study on the movement behavior of any waterbird species to our knowledge. Our results indicate that lotic water features, including drainage infrastructure previously thought to be of minimal habitat value, contribute to habitat connectivity in this listed subspecies.

Physiological and behavioral responses of house sparrows to repeated stressors.

Despite decades of research, we still lack a complete understanding of what factors influence the transition of the necessary and adaptive acute stress response to what has become known as chronic stress. This gap in knowledge has illuminated the necessity for studies that examine the thresholds between these two sides of the stress response. Here, we determine how repeated exposure to acute stressors influences physiological and behavioral responses. In this repeated measures study, house sparrows (Passer domesticus) were exposed to a chronic stress protocol. We took physiological and behavioral measurements before, during, and after the protocol. Blood samples were used to assess four aspects of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function: baseline corticosterone, stress-induced corticosterone, negative feedback, and the maximal capacity to secrete corticosterone. We also assessed bacterial killing capacity and changes in uric acid concentration. Neophobia trials were used to assess behavioral changes throughout the protocol. We found no significant changes in HPA axis regulation in any of the four aspects we tested. However, we found that uric acid concentrations and neophobia significantly decreased after only four days of the chronic stress protocol, while bacterial killing capacity did not decrease until after eight days of exposure. These results indicate that different components of the stress response can be impacted by chronic stress on different timescales. Our results further indicate the importance of assessing multiple aspects of both physiology and behavior in order to understand how exposure to chronic stress may influence ability to cope with future challenges.

Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O'ahu.

We conducted a spatially explicit, stochastic, individually based population viability analysis for the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies of waterbird endemic to fragmented coastal wetlands in Hawai'i. This subspecies persists on two islands, with no apparent movement between them. We assessed extirpation risk for birds on O'ahu, where the resident gallinule population is made up of several fragmented subpopulations. Data on genetic differentiation were used to delineate subpopulations and estimate dispersal rates between them. We used sensitivity analyses to gauge the impact of current uncertainty of vital rate parameters on population projections, to ascertain the relative importance of gallinule vital rates to population persistence, and to compare the efficacy of potential management strategies. We used available sea level rise projections to examine the relative vulnerability of O'ahu's gallinule population to habitat loss arising from this threat. Our model predicted persistence of the island's gallinule population at 160 years (∼40 generations), but with high probabilities of extirpation for small subpopulations. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of juvenile and adult mortality to population persistence in Hawaiian gallinules, justifying current predator control efforts and suggesting the need for additional research on chick and fledgling survival. Subpopulation connectivity from dispersal had little effect on the persistence of the island-wide population, but strong effects on the persistence of smaller subpopulations. Our model also predicted island-wide population persistence under predicted sea level rise scenarios, but with O'ahu's largest gallinule populations losing >40% of current carrying capacity.

No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers.

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Akepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987-2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Akepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline.

Chronic repeated exposure to weather-related stimuli elicits few symptoms of chronic stress in captive molting and non-molting European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris).

Repeated exposure to acute stressors causes dramatic changes in an animal's stress physiology and the cumulative effects are often called chronic stress. Recently we showed that short-term exposure to weather-related stimuli, such as temperature change, artificial precipitation, and food restriction, cause acute responses in captive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Here, we examined the effect of repeated exposure to weather-related stressors on heart rate and corticosterone (CORT) of captive non-molting and molting European starlings. Four times every day for 3 weeks, birds were exposed to either 30 min of a subtle (3°C) decrease in temperature, a short bout of simulated rain, or 2 hr of food removal. The order and time of presentation were randomly assigned on each day. We found no differences in heart rate or heart rate variability. Furthermore, there were no changes in baseline CORT levels, CORT negative feedback efficacy, or maximal adrenal capacity. Mass increased across the experimental period only in molting birds. CORT responses to restraint were decreased in both groups following treatment, suggesting the birds had downregulated their responses to acute stress. Molting birds showed evidence of suppression of the HPA axis compared with non-molting birds, which is consistent with previous research. Overall, our data show that repeated exposure to weather-related stressors does not elicit most of the symptoms normally associated with chronic stress.

Successful population establishment from small introductions appears to be less common than believed.

Although small populations are at high risk of extinction, there are regular reports in the scientific literature of purported small, isolated, persistent populations. One source of evidence of the viability of small populations comes from the alleged successful introduction of species to areas outside their original range from introductions of few individuals. We reviewed the examples from introduction compendia on deliberate translocations of birds, and the original sources, to identify and evaluate purported examples of successful establishments from small introductions. We found 23 purportedly successful introductions from few (<30) individuals. After assessing original sources, we found that two of the claims were substantiated; the rest were ambiguous or could be rejected as examples, primarily due to a lack of evidence in original sources of the number of birds released and because of supplemental individuals from other releases, releases in nearby regions, and the possibility of natural invasion. Our results suggest that reports of successful establishment of birds from introductions of few individuals have been overstated. These results strengthen the relationship previously reported between propagule pressure and likelihood of establishment, and support the lack of viability of small populations presumed by population theory. We suggest that analyses of introduction failure and success would benefit from excluding studies where introduction effort is unknown or unreliably documented.

Population Viability and Vital Rate Sensitivity of an Endangered Avian Cooperative Breeder, the White-Breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus).

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals. We used an individual-based approach to build the first demographic population projection model for this endangered species, parameterizing the model with data from eight years of field study before and after habitat loss within the stronghold of the species' distribution. The recent habitat loss resulted in an approximately 18% predicted decline in population size; this estimate was mirrored by a separate assessment using occupancy data. When mortality rates remained close to the pre-habitat loss estimate, quasi-extinction probability was low under extant habitat area, but increased with habitat loss expected after current plans for resort construction are completed. Post-habitat loss mortality rate estimates were too high for projected populations to persist. Vital rate sensitivity analyses indicated that population growth rate and population persistence were most sensitive to juvenile mortality. However, observed values for adult mortality were closest to the threshold value above which populations would crash. Adult mortality, already relatively low, may have the least capacity to change compared to other vital rates, whereas juvenile mortality may have the most capacity for improvement. Results suggest that improving mortality estimates and determining the cause(s) of juvenile mortality should be research priorities. Despite predictions that aspects of cooperative systems may result in variation in reproduction or juvenile mortality being the most sensitive vital rates, adult mortality was the most sensitive in half of the demographic models of other avian cooperative breeders. Interestingly, vital rate sensitivity differed by model type. However, studies that explicitly modeled the species' cooperative breeding system found reproduction to be the most sensitive rate.

Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion.

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.

Are receptor concentrations correlated across tissues within individuals? A case study examining glucocorticoid and mineralocorticoid receptor binding.

Hormone receptors are a necessary (although not sufficient) part of the process through which hormones like corticosterone create physiological responses. However, it is currently unknown to what extent receptor concentrations across different target tissues may be correlated within individual animals. In this study, we examined this question using a large dataset of radioligand binding data for glucocorticoid receptors (GRs) and mineralocorticoid receptors (MRs) in 13 different tissues in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) (n=72). Our data revealed that individual house sparrows tended to exhibit higher or lower receptor binding across all tissues, which could be part of what creates the physiological and behavioral syndromes associated with different hormonal profiles. However, although statistically significant, the correlations between tissues were very weak. Thus, when each tissue was independently regressed on receptor concentrations in the other tissues, multivariate analysis revealed significant relationships only for sc fat (for GR) and whole brain, hippocampus, kidney, omental fat, and sc fat (for MR). We also found significant pairwise correlations only between receptor concentrations in brain and hippocampus, and brain and kidney (both for MR). This research reveals that although there are generalized individual consistencies in GR and MR concentrations, possibly due to such factors as hormonal regulation and genetic effects, the ability of 2 different tissues to respond to the same hormonal signal appears to be affected by additional factors that remain to be identified.